In fact, the core of the subject or his comrades last week to discuss the issues: the recent international futures look very strange to go, dollar and U.S. stocks, commodities actually inconsistent pace, and we are very concerned about the color in the aluminum industry, we talk about how people look at The industry's market? this issue is very questionable, because suddenly the international financial market rhythm changed, this change must have behind it the motives and interests of the points, then the analysis of the incentives and take the interests of the points on the future market investment a very important practical significance.
before we have analyzed, the dollar was U.S. stocks see-saw state of the financial strategy of the decision by the United States, which is conducive to the United States on the one hand to attract funds through the stock market rally into the U.S. market, one can depreciate These funds will be locked, this strategic long-term change in general less likely, because the U.S. is in recession for a long cycle. but does not change does not mean that the long-term mid-term does not change, then I judged that if U.S. stocks staged there at the same time increases so that the U.S. economy has entered a stage of the recovery period. U.S. dollar rose again by attracting capital into, and if U.S. stocks continue to remain relatively strong in this stage will be more attractive feet. So, from the point of view the present situation, At least on the surface of the U.S. economy entered a period of strong recovery.
fact, the dollar index rose mainly due to the recent strong euro and the euro area national currencies against the U.S. dollar depreciation, particularly the euro, after rising in a row plummeted. Why the euro fall? causes of the crisis in Greece. Greece is the EU member states, which makes it faced insolvency edge of national bankruptcy, so one of the three international rating agency Fitch reduced continuously over its national credit rating, this has led to fears that the crisis will spread down, there is even speculation that the next may be the United Kingdom. As a result, some speculative funds into the euro zone will naturally be considering leaving the rest of the world market, the most natural feel for these speculative short-term safety is probably the U.S. market Therefore, the euro rose to U.S. dollar to fall. Greek crisis is actually a long time, why suddenly exposed at this time? It is the continuous degradation of the Fitch Company, headquartered in New York and London, but it is a French holding company, The French company, the writer can not find out who is holding it in the end was. but what is certain is that the company will not simply be exposed at this time Greece is the EU member states think the EU should now be said, but that doubted is that this is something that only German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the issue should be aid to Greece. This is a very strange thing, there is nothing tricky here, in the end the author has yet to make clear reasoning. but it is certain that this by no means a simple isolated event (his comrades might have come to share ideas exchange).
but in any case, the dollar rose sharply is realistic, technically speaking, the dollar should fall soon there will be adjustments, but adjustments decline, then it means that if the U.S. dollar staged a firm bottom, which is obviously the United States in the use of time in an attempt to attract funds to achieve rapid recovery of economy. Therefore, investors must pay attention to whether the dollar can go down to be supported, if That means new lows the formation of a new decline, at least to talk down to previous lows support; the contrary, there will be a wave of support after the rebound is relatively larger.
addition, there is a more interesting news . the People's Bank vice president, said long-term depreciation trend will not change the dollar, which is obviously bad-mouthing dollars, eight hundred billion U.S. dollars for a bond held by the national economic interests alone is beginning to rebound in the dollar should not badmouth , and this time bad-mouthing can only indicate a problem that is sharp appreciation of China does not want U.S. dollars, which is only considered if the export is still not. personally think that this should be in the direction of capital inflows to the United States to suggest that the relative United States, China is the future economic growth. personal opinion, if the reasoning set up China's financiers then considered as to the international perspective, but also be considered with a long-term strategic considerations. because, in a sense, Which of course, the market capital flows on which the most favorable market, fear is useless to capital inflows, capital inflow and how much of that money into the real economy is the financiers of the dry matter. This is the recognition of the individual that comrades more Chinese officials should be concerned about the attitude in this regard, if there is follow-up statement, the inference that the author can be no two ways about that.
the United States to adjust the financial strategy actually is a gamble because if the dollar rose while U.S. stocks also strong, in a sense gave the funds to be relatively high dollar stuck in some sort of relief opportunities. Therefore, when the dollar rebounded to a large sell-off hit to some extent inevitable, there will be a lot of money out of than the United States. So , depending on whether the U.S. government have the courage to gamble on them. Thus, for China, should continue to accelerate the construction of multi-level capital market, continue to attract international capital into the Chinese market.
dollar-denominated commodities, it should be said depreciation of the dollar will rise in the overall commodities, commodity dollar will fall, but investors may find a recent phenomenon, that is, commodities are not fully consistent with the U.S. dollar. This is mainly because commodity prices depends on two factors : 1, the settlement currency currency factors; 2, the supply factor. devalue the currency so that if the settlement is bound to rise in commodity power, but the other decided to commodity prices is the supply factor. This determines the trend in commodities can not be completely consistent with the rhythm of the dollar. careful investors will find some trends in commodity shares also have some A shadow, it is not imaginary but a fact. China's stock market reflected the Chinese economy, Chinese economy was the first to achieve recovery in post-crisis economy , then the Chinese demand for commodities will, of course elements of the movement of bulk commodities. through the above analysis we can see that if the world economy will have a strong recovery in commodity prices pulling power, if the dollar continues to depreciate the power will be strengthened , the resonance will lead to commodities rose, this year has been a greater degree of expression. If the dollar appreciation phase, then the dollar becomes the strength and the strength of economic recovery in a game between, and behold greater party strength. So who best embodies the trend for commodities? of course, is the trend in commodity itself. Therefore, for bulk commodities, the dollar is the key point of concern during the commodity itself is not trend upward trend remains after death.
So, why the movement of bulk commodities of aluminum and other commodity movements and different? supply relationship is still here at work. because aluminum production capacity than other commodities is more excess capacity, relatively speaking, more adequate inventory . The reality is that the real estate industry since 2008 was the beginning of underemployment, and other products have a relatively large amount of inventory, stock in the digestion during the course of the relative demand for aluminum is low, demand for aluminum in aluminum futures rose less than the intensity that Of course not as good as other non-ferrous products. Recently, when the aluminum in the frequent high dollar, the trend was much stronger than other commodities, which in turn is the rationale? commodities futures according to the above trend on the two known determinants of the dollar appreciation of the power demand to less than the power of the market for aluminum. So, the strength of demand for aluminum and from where? In fact, the reason is very simple, ordinary housing next year, China will increase the supply, in 2008 less than the real estate industry started projects cases consumed in 2009 will usher in the house after the outbreak of inventory period, together with the Government to increase housing supply, then the real estate industry will significantly increase the demand for aluminum. using aluminum China's auto industry is more high-speed development period, cars will increase as aluminum. appliances home appliances through the stimulation of this year, larger stocks should consume, the future production of home appliances will increase the demand for aluminum; the same time, taking into account the state lowered the second and third tier cities household registration threshold will increase the consumption of household appliances, so the class of aluminum electrical demand is also increasing. compared to China, the world economy is recovering, the recovery is bound to bring consumer, of course, the demand for aluminum will increase. so many factors that increase together, of course, would be expected for aluminum strengthened. look at the trend of aluminum technology. Compared with other non-ferrous, aluminum also experienced the smallest increase for up to four or five months of technical correction, compared to other non-ferrous metals of course, more energy, which is aluminum while the recent strength in the dollar to a new high of the fundamental reason frequently. Of course, money is also optimistic about the value of the capital inflow surface depression factor. Therefore, under normal circumstances, aluminum is still worth looking forward to the future trend, then Aluminum plates also cause for concern.
above, is the author discussed the subject for the last week, with the majority of his comrades questionable.
also: Copenhagen, does not reach any major agreements, the results did not achieve what is normal The. Like I said before, this time an agreement must not agree to, we must unswervingly hold the bottom line. Americans now throw out one hundred billion U.S. dollars on, then put the press on the first solid, the other millions of Do not sign the agreement with the conditions, so long as to maintain this situation, the Bureau is developing win, that is, the Chinese won. multipolar world raised more than a decade, China's current multi-polar world only really have a polar taste. Copenhagen is one of China's best publicity. we've too many ;, at which point the attack will inevitably accompanied by various developed countries, this is a natural phenomenon, the Chinese just do a good job hold the bottom line, we should give the Xie and Su Wei is leading a delegation with warm applause, and if our negotiations are so smart, are such a plan, how can we be as incompetent as iron ore and helplessness ? that hard people will remember. Copenhagen has been a no legal effect only to save face and leave for the next steps and scope of the . But the climate will have a second Board of Game, the third game, the first N Council, hope that our negotiators and prudent, to continue to develop a strategy this time, the strategy, planned way to give people with to greater victories.
Micro Bot heroes like a quote:
everyone's technology platform game. There is no teacher, only friends and Game students, this is not the first letter to you, the teacher's knowledge has been accounted for charisma and deeply impressed, not say kind words to say, here are a few questions to ask the teacher accounts:
1 , on the exchange rate. Since March this year, the U.S. has repeatedly stressed the strength of U.S. dollars (most impressed by Premier Wen Jiabao Meets the Press after the meeting that time), but in fact it has been half a year to U.S. unilateral decline, during which U.S. other major currencies against the euro depreciated by about 30%, while the RMB and the dollar remained fixed exchange rate that way, seems to be possessed of RMB to U.S. dollars indirectly, on the other a floating exchange rate system with the rate of devaluation of the currency. so, the RMB not only does not appreciate as expected but on the contrary, to some extent, suppressed a sharp decline in exports. So my question is, for China, this is not a very successful exchange rate policy? However, on the other hand, it , the dollar's depreciation against the U.S. dollar has made many countries distrust generated, and that depreciation of the renminbi with it not follow the U.S. have the same impact? This is not, and contrary to the international strategy of the RMB up?
2, on the import and export. Today the teacher in class in terms of industrial economics to the issue of import and export, said that many countries are now complaining about too much of China's import and export trade imbalance against the related industries in their countries. and they take a lot for China's trade restrictions, for example, the most common anti-dumping. However, the undeniable fact is that most of our export products are of high pollution and high energy consumption and low value-added low-level industries, many of whom are people willing to produce a transfer over a European and American consumption in China has undertaken the hazards of environmental pollution, China has only made a few little money from it, which is in fact working for the United States and Europe is not it? economics teacher second to our industry to say that China's foreign trade is not balance in large part because China needs to import high-end technology and key resources others have to sell. So I think the issue of China in these months was very passive, embarrassed at such an international game in China always seem to appear on helpless (such as iron ore events). and we get from the national media rarely negative information, people can hear nothing more than a strong China, the unprecedented strength, international influence and a substantial increase and so on. I do not know whether our nation is too big concerns, so that people would prefer to livelihood issues of the international contest of the inability to turn a blind eye should also strongly boast from the mine, singing the praises. I do not know the teacher has to say about accounting? Anyway, I is the current situation and China Management is very views.
3, on real estate. Dubai with the world such a thing, once again proved that the prosperity driven by the real estate bust is not no myth! Professor Huang Weiping, Renmin University of China said: world countries who rely on real estate driven, results did not not collapse, the United States the world's oldest economic outcome is driven by the real estate collapse; the world's second oldest in Japan to promote economic outcome is by the real estate collapse; the world economy has long been the center of China as the collapse of the real estate column. in the world, probably only in Germany to escape the robbery, all driven by the real estate on the planet outcome is the collapse of national economies, especially when the real estate and financial closely as a financial derivative instruments , do not crash it is simply not the economy. 50%, do not they will continue to increase this number forever? 60%, 70%? then? I can not imagine going hh but I think worse things than this, the government seems irrational real estate prosperity does not seem objectionable, I think the reason one hand may be national economic stimulus plan requires a lot of money, and financial strength of the State can not keep up, need to sell the financial resources to fill the gap, so the high prices will have to to acquiesce. Second is self-interest may be associated with the local government, which I am not prepared to go on, because that it will not be useful, but also top of mind top of the lung. My question is this real estate boom also how far? is already embarked on a path of no return? the irreconcilable contradictions that seem to not really need a way to fix the crash!? Chinese real estate are closely linked with the finance, real estate collapse is also to offer financial dragged into the quagmire of the inevitable, when, losing the financial support of the real economy also unsustainable, then, is not to mean that the entire Chinese economy will plunge into the struggle for a long time?
4, on democracy . relative to western democracy and legal system than I do not want to believe that China's political system more advanced, even textbooks speak more appealing. I think the measure of a system of good and bad is not the oral and written, but rather the state to people doing, what brings benefits to the people? and I saw and experienced personal life does not seem to imagine it, I think the biggest problem is that this society of unequal power, not the voice of the people expression, democracy can not develop well, those in power doing is they are not very strict supervision. So the teacher would like to talk about democracy in China accounted for the views and the way out.
finally want to show what, I did not mean to bad-mouth the Chinese economy, I am a Chinese, of course, is in love with this country. also is the case, I also exposed to this country was worried about many issues. I grew the most in this country underlying the growth and sufferings of the common people have a deep understanding of, and sincerely hope that a truly multi-national regulatory authorities to seek blessing for the people, looking chest, but also do not forget to head down to, look at the following supporting his people What is experiencing the suffering.
said a Chase, thinking it is confusing, ask the teacher corrected total.
wish good life of peace!
exchange Zhanjiang Scarecrow
2009-11-30
:
the first question. What is the exchange rate? In fact, the war game is the currency exchange rate must take into account the interests of a country's economy. For China, before the appreciation of the real economy to China has brought a lot of pressure, because the appreciation of the many business failures, making Chinese goods less competitive internationally a lot. More importantly, the Chinese foreign exchange losses on a direct, dollar-denominated assets against which a substantial loss back home, in other words now in the United States assets are hedged assets. Then, in the tremendous economic pressure, the final once again chosen to keep an eye on China's dollar policy, a more substantial appreciation of the yuan during the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies is also a significant appreciation of Chinese companies that once again worse, until the dollar started to depreciate again China's exports was gradually improved. from the point of the whole process, not to mention the success of Chinese exchange rate policy, is upset to return to keep an eye on dollar, indicating that there was appreciation of the timing issue.
yuan last close watch The dollar has some benefits of economic recovery, but the future revaluation pressure still exists, mainly the development of China's economic decisions, if China wants to avoid the sharp appreciation of the renminbi is necessary to establish a larger capital market, while the RMB internationalization so that more people hold the RMB, so that countries do not keep their inflation under a lot of the issuance of RMB, the price is determined by the supply relationship, supply enough natural appreciation of the RMB will reduce the pressure, then the yuan from the dollar will gradually mature . long-term depreciation of the dollar is expected to be inevitable, it is because the U.S. economy itself has been seriously overdrawn, it is only through the issuance of a lot of money to hedge this risk, the currency is an inevitable decline in the value too much. Therefore, the RMB from the dollar sooner or later to.
RMB internationalization of the main criteria currently two points: 1, to allow more foreign ownership investment of RMB to enter the Chinese market, then this requires a sufficiently large capital markets; 2, trade settlement, the original form is currency swap, when everyone can be trusted after the settlement of RMB currency, so as long as a settlement currency traders must always hold to the RMB, which is why I think China should still be the continued occupation of the world commodity markets, the dollar held RMB then the holders of RMB yuan more than enough people out of the dollar will, in order to facilitate the settlement of other countries will gradually close watch on their yuan currency, which gradually formed the international. Currently, the yuan can only be keeping your eye on the dollar because RMB's international power is now too weak, a process that is inevitable.
second question. trade is a country in the process of capitalist development must form, no process of industrialization of the country not to rely on trade conquer the world, which involves the balance of payments problems. China has become Europe's plant which is a process of the industrialization process, otherwise, how can technology transfer from developed to developing countries? how could the capital transfer from developed to developing country? China is the virtue of cheap labor to attract capital and technology to achieve their rapid development, which is the process of industrialization. As for the U.S. and Europe accuse China of this is inevitable, no country are all on their own point of view, these more moves here from China in order to get more benefits. In addition, the Western leader to keep their technology, there are many high-tech products export restrictions to China, which China's trade surplus resulted in objectively great. station In China's point of view, so that excuse of course, just as Western Canada's dumping charge in China, like the body, which is actually a defense of China to the other charges added. Frankly speaking, even if Europe does not restrict these technologies, because labor costs in China very low-end Chinese trade surplus is still high. This is the trade dispute, but the contest of strength, his death this is not the root cause, the fundamental reason is that capital is the fame and fortune, of course, low labor costs in China to invest in China, investment in Europe and America after completing Of course life will need to import, then of course, will have a surplus. Since it is a game, it does not exist any help do not help, the fight is wise to talk about what help or not, help = incompetence. just like iron ore, China imported iron ore trade of five of the world into such a big customer if we can integrate itself fully with the bargaining power and at least part of the pricing, the results of what China's internal friction, he did not rule, their messing around, they finally so passive. This can not blame the people of Australia, who do not think for themselves? complain to blame the people who do not live up to expectations, such as Baoshan Iron ore negotiations soon to be rising on the steel, it is not obvious to their negotiation manufacturing pressure? so how could not be controlled by others without strategy? see the Copenhagen conference, prepared to say, this pocketed the eyeballs in China, so negotiations are not a passive thing, of course, also have bargaining power.
The International Game indeed it is the strength to speak, speak the wisdom of China suffer more than before, and now gradually have some initiative, these are the strength dictates. even if the U.S. does not mean everything completely, this is not Copenhagen very trouble? so the international event to watch over and over again, and not just look at one side. As the people's livelihood, the failure of reform in China has led to three people's livelihood is a serious problem now, health reform, education reform, housing reform, these three changes a lot of trouble to change out, it has been seriously affected the livelihood and sustainable economic development. So far still no three elements of this change, the Chinese planted a large hidden economy. But if the Government does not point score that is an exaggeration, the most recent description of China's rapid economic development policy although there may be arguable but the direction has not committed a fatal error on. For example, in social security is a major change for the present indeed, but such as healthcare reform was still not complete, which will leave troubles; Reform The current stagnation, education, a growing problem; housing reform not to mention the real estate has become China's largest economic sub cancer, the biggest risk China's economy. These three do not frankly say that I am most worried about.
The third problem. Indeed, the current Chinese real estate in taking a point of no return, it does not return the interest involved too much in fact, ordinary people can not control high prices can not imagine why, if the primary responsibility for the return to developers and real estate speculators who it is biased. In my opinion, the root of high prices on the chase to catch 九四年 then the tax system reform, housing reform government to catch all the problems of housing to the market, the real estate as the driving GDP of major industries, continue to pursue further deep reform of the mechanism involved in the Government, the Government is also the root causes of the high cost of operating one. post-tax distribution of property rights taken away but did not take more powers, and ultimately must rely on local government finances tight Sale to fill a vacancy, which formed a land finance. The housing market all to make a direction can be controlled product pricing, the ultimate real estate developers and local governments and financial institutions to re-form a community of interests, this relates to how the interests of all parties will really control prices? Therefore, the reform must first establish the real estate industry, the Government's position as a real estate supply side, while the land to solve the financial, but also reform of the mechanism involving the Government, to solve these fundamental problems is the corruption, real estate and other surface problems . These fundamental problems are not resolved, the Chinese real estate industry is no return, and ultimately bound to collapse, that would inevitably hurt the Chinese real economy.
fourth question. China's system of course is not advanced, even the legal community has not fully realized about What is advanced. China's economy is the rapid development of China's demographic dividend is the outbreak of reform and opening up to China on this basis provides a direction, but far from advanced systems, can only be fairly appropriate. but the moment with the China's economy entered a period of qualitative change, the moment the system has become increasingly inappropriate. corruption, more and more serious, more serious official standard, and uneven distribution of social benefits has led to physical confrontation. These are serious system problems caused. Therefore, China must continue to reform, we must continue to strengthen the institutional reform and institution building.
it is undeniable that the Chinese economy is developed, can not deny is that our standard of living, and if denied So that our state system as advanced as ridiculous. reform and opening up three decades, our economic development is real, this must be recognized. Otherwise, thirty years ago, there is much difference between China and North Korea? but now you more than willing to put themselves and the DPRK? This is progress. Therefore, we must acknowledge progress, but also must recognize the gap. So, I have never complained against blindly, blindly that wretched, wretched! Who we are born in this country, our country had just experienced two or three hundred years behind the shame, of course, of course, development is very slow, Is this the reason we give up on themselves? So do not do so much complaining, and more effort for everyone under the point of influence the lives of more than just promote the system construction is our duty to this people, I think all would complain about are not worthy of sympathy.
there is no absolute in this world of democracy, Western democracies to democracy? the United States to push the Democratic favorite, but he shells others flew to the head, smashing other people's homes, calling them is to bring democracy. If people did not even order a democracy should do? ate the top of what use are not democratic? to mention is the most developed United States still has serious racial discrimination, a hundred years ago the United States had slaves, and China two thousand years ago to have left a slave society. So, nothing worthy of worship western, Western of Genghis Khan, if not today, opened the Hexi Corridor, China The four great inventions of the past where there does not pass today's Western? no western United States where there is now? modern maritime power but also because here is the development of powerful Arabs can not only take into account the sea adventure, who can be developed on land to the sea development ? These are historical facts. our modern backwardness is our own making, we must be responsible for these, we should also learn something advanced to the West, but we do not blindly worship, not to mention that what they have nothing to worship We just need improvement. We should not leave the so-called Western democracy, but to create their own genuine democracy, this is the most important.
many problems in China, but she, after all, tomorrow, after all, a strong driving force for development, the need to build the system is not perfect, but everything needs to be done. America before being discovered, or the middle of nowhere does not it? Rome was not built in a day, it requires the efforts of several generations. the future is bright, The road is tortuous.
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